In Need of a Good Forest Fire

(Don't worry, I'm not being totally sick...follow what I'm about to say)

Have you worried about the stock market lately? Have you checked your 401K a few extra times this month just to see how bad it really is? Do you believe that we are in a bear market and a recession is coming? Well, you're not alone. I think the rest of the world is with you! But here's a greater question...does all of this scare you? For myself, I can honestly say, "no".

Now I know what you're thinking. Sure Jason, you're not scared, but we're not all pastors! And yes, you're right, my faith does give me a little extra ease and comfort. I trust that God has things in control. But there is something else at work that most people cannot, or choose not to see. Economics is all about emotion. When the market is doing well, people want to ride the wave and buy, buy, buy! When the market is plummeting, people want to sell and get out now! The thing is, both of those responses are fear driven. Any logical person will tell you that good business buys low and sells high. So when the market is doing well, you sell! When it's plummeting, you buy!

But then, what about a recession? How does that change things? Well, a recession is a lot like a forest fire. In nature when the forest floor gets too thick with brush, when the underlying trees and shrubs suck all of the nutrients and water out of the soil, a fire usually sparks. It sweeps through the forest, burning down tall trees and burning up low lying plants. And when it's all over, you look out at a barren wasteland. Or do you?

In reality, new life begins to grow immediately. The heat from the flames causes pine trees to open their cones and drop their seeds. The newly cleared forest floor provides an open and fertile place for the seeds to germinate. And of those trees that survived the fire, they are no longer in competition with ground clutter for nutrients and water. A forest fire brings new life to the forest just like a recession can bring new life to the markets.

Consider for a moment. For months now government leaders have been doing everything in their power to bring down the price of oil and raise the value of the dollar. But it wasn't until now (about a week into the reality of a recession) that oil has fallen to near $70 per barrel and the dollar is holding its own. What happened? A forest fire. New life is breaking forth! No, it's not any fun to experience, and the pain and anxiety can make it seem like the world is coming to an end, but tomorrow is a new day. There is another chance.

That's what I believe about nature, about the markets, and about my faith. Every now and then we all have to have our own little forest fires. Have you had one lately? Maybe it was a rocky patch in your marriage or a financial crisis with your mortgage or maybe it's an unexpected pregnancy. Whatever the case, tomorrow is another day. God is waiting it out and He will be there tomorrow to bring forth new life, new hope, and a new day. That's God's economics. Is it yours?